India's digital economy is projected to constitute nearly 20 per cent of the nation's GDP by 2030, fuelled by a growth rate twice as fast as the overall economy, according to a senior government official.
India's economic growth slowed to a 15-month low of 6.7 per cent in April-June 2024-25, mainly due to poor performance of the agriculture and services sectors, government data showed on Friday. The gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 8.2 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2022-23. India, however, remained the fastest-growing major economy, as China posted a 4.7 per cent growth in April-June 2024.
The Indian economy is likely to grow at 7.4 per cent in 2025-26, up from 6.5 per cent in the previous fiscal, mainly on account of better performance of manufacturing and services sectors, as per the government data released on Wednesday.
India's real GDP growth will decline marginally to 6.3 per cent in 2024 from the 6.4 per cent estimated for 2023, an American brokerage firm said on Monday. The next calendar year will be of two halves, wherein the government spending before the upcoming General Elections will be the key driver for growth, while after the elections, it will be the re-acceleration in investment growth, especially from the private sector, Goldman Sachs said in a report. From a fiscal year perspective, the brokerage said it expects growth to accelerate to 6.5 per cent for FY25 from the 6.2 per cent it has projected for the ongoing FY24, it added.
Amidst a sharp run-up in gold and silver prices, investors are advised to rebalance their portfolios by booking partial profits in precious metals and reallocating to domestic equities and debt, according to financial experts.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra is now confronting the classic growth-inflation tradeoff, a situation exacerbated by the West Asia war, which threatens to end the 'goldilocks period' of low inflation and robust growth.
India achieved a current account surplus of USD 7.1 billion, or 0.7 per cent of GDP, in the January-March quarter of 2025-26, primarily boosted by robust services exports and increased remittances from overseas Indians, according to recent Reserve Bank of India data.
New completions in India's office real estate sector fell by 36 per cent to 9.7 million square feet in Q1 2026, the lowest in four quarters, primarily due to developers adopting a cautious stance amid global uncertainties, particularly in Bengaluru, Hyderabad, and Mumbai. Despite this, office absorption increased by 20 per cent, indicating strong occupier demand.
India's economy is projected to maintain growth above 7 per cent in 2026-27 (FY27), supported by strong domestic consumption and investment, even as global growth faces risks from geopolitical tensions, according to industry body Assocham.
Uncertainties stemming from the West Asia crisis and its potential impact on inflation and economic growth were key factors in the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision to maintain the status quo on interest rates, according to the recently released MPC meeting minutes.
Moody's Investors Services on Tuesday gave a speculative grade rating to India's domestic-currency debt on account of the government's heavy borrowings, while doubting sustainability of nine per cent GDP growth.
The World Bank has affirmed India's strong position to withstand the current global energy shock, citing high foreign exchange reserves, fiscal space, and low inflation as key buffers supporting continued growth despite international headwinds.
Concerned over the plight of 220 million people living below poverty line, President A P J Abdul Kalam on Friday suggested increasing of overall GDP growth rate to 10 per cent and maintaining it for a decade.
It seems odd to criticise a country for delivering growth rates in standards of living and consumption that have been perhaps the fastest, longest, and most broad-based (affecting hundreds of millions of people) in history, points out Arvind Subramanian.
Fitch Ratings on Wednesday raised India's GDP growth forecast to 6.9 per cent for current fiscal year, from 6.5 per cent earlier, citing strong June quarter growth and domestic consumption-led demand.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday marginally lowered the country's GDP growth projection for the current fiscal at 6.8 per cent from its earlier estimate of 7 per cent. However, despite the downward revision in the economic growth projection, India will remain among the fastest growing major economies in the world, said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das while announcing the latest bi-monthly monetary policy.
However, the SBI report said it will take almost seven-quarters from Q4 FY21 to reach the pre-pandemic level in nominal terms and there will be a permanent output loss of around 9 per cent of GDP.
Global brokerage Bernstein has issued a cautionary note, stating that India risks 'under-delivering on its potential' unless it addresses key policy bottlenecks and structural risks, including employment challenges from AI, limited manufacturing gains, and rising welfare spending.
'Once the currency goes out of the hand, then possibly your major challenge is that it will not come back.'
The Indian rupee depreciated by 32 paise to close at 92.83 against the US dollar, influenced by escalating global tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict, and the deadline for the RBI's instructions to banks to curb overnight positions.
The Indian economy will grow at around 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal, notwithstanding high crude oil prices and increased uncertainty due climate changes, NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani said on Thursday. Virmani also asserted that the gross household savings ratio in India has consistently gone up. In an interview with PTI, he said: "My growth projection (of India's GDP growth) is 6.5 per cent plus minus 0.5 per cent... because my experience is that the fluctuations in global GDP more or less has balanced out for us, assuming normal changes."
FY17 GDP growth faces cash crunch heat
India's economy contracted by 7.3 per cent in fiscal 2020-21. The pandemic, it said, will leave new economic scars and deepen pre-pandemic constraints.
Stating that an economic recession gripped global economy following the lockdowns due to COVID-19 pandemic, Fitch Ratings on Friday said the initial disruptions to regional manufacturing supply chains in China have now broadened to include local discretionary spending and exports.
Brokerage firm Ambit Capital has cut FY17 growth estimate to 3.5 per cent from 6.8 per cent and saaid there was even a possibility of growth contracting during the December quarter
'We expect a pick-up in the second half of the current fiscal. But before that, data is likely to show a further slowdown. The second quarter print is likely to be worse than the first quarter,' said a senior official.
Indian economy grew by 7.8 per cent in April-June -- the highest in five quarters -- before the disruptive US tariffs were imposed.
India's gross domestic product product (GDP) growth rate between 2011-12 and 2016-17 should be about 4.5 per cent instead of the official estimate of close to 7 per cent, he said in a research paper published at Harvard University. "The Indian policy automobile has been navigated with a faulty, possibly broken, speedometer," he says in the paper.
Capex, infrastructure development, and prudent fiscal management are the key focus areas in the Budget, says Nilesh Shah.
India's new national accounts will leverage new data sources and surveys to enhance the measurement of the country's informal economy, and introduce double deflation methods across sectors, replacing the current system that relies on a single deflation mechanism in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calculations.
India's services sector growth slowed in March, reaching a 14-month low, according to the HSBC India Services PMI. The slowdown reflects weaker new business intakes and rising input costs, particularly in fuel, transport, and logistics.
Bank of Baroda economists project India's GDP to grow 6.5-6.8 per cent in FY27 but warn that the fiscal deficit could overshoot the budgeted 4.3 per cent target, potentially reaching 4.7-4.8 per cent of GDP due to subsidy overruns, excise duty cuts, and oil marketing company losses.
Sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals and automobiles can see supply disruptions in value chain, which may lead to a derailment of the domestic economic growth.
An analysis of year-wise movements of average global crude oil prices versus India's GDP reveals no inverse correlation, contrary to wide belief.
India's GDP growth rate will rise to 7 per cent by 2026 compared to 4.6 per cent for China, S&P Global Ratings said on Tuesday. In a report titled 'China Slows India Grows', S&P said it expects Asia-Pacific's growth engine to shift from China to South and Southeast Asia. "We project China's GDP growth to slow to 4.6 per cent in 2024 (2023: 5.4 per cent), edge up to 4.8 per cent in 2025, and return to 4.6 per cent in 2026.
Global forecasting firm Oxford Economics on Monday revised downwards its India GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 10.2 per cent from 11.8 per cent previously, citing the country's escalating health burden, faltering vaccination rate and lack of a convincing government strategy to contain the pandemic. Oxford Economics also said that notwithstanding the likelihood of further mobility restrictions, it expects India's targeted lockdown approach, less stringent restrictions, and resilient consumer and business behaviour to mitigate the economic impact of the second wave.
Here are the key numbers to watch out for in the Union Budget for 2025-26:
The government on Thursday exuded confidence in sustaining GDP growth of over 8 per cent in the next fiscal following a slew of economic policies announced during 2003-04.
